FARNBOROUGH, UK – Africa is expected to become the world’s third-fastest growing air travel market over the next two decades, driven by rising regional connectivity, economic integration and expanding trade, according to Embraer’s newly released Market Outlook 2026, unveiled at the Farnborough International Airshow.
The Brazilian aircraft manufacturer forecasts passenger traffic across Africa will grow at an average annual rate of 4.4% between 2026 and 2045, trailing only China (5.2%) and the Middle East (4.6%), while outpacing Latin America (4.3%), Asia Pacific (4.1%), Europe (2.7%) and North America (2.0%).
The report argues that the global aviation industry is entering a new phase shaped by geopolitical realignment, regionalized supply chains and changing travel patterns, with airlines increasingly needing smaller, more flexible aircraft to connect emerging economic centres rather than relying solely on traditional hub-and-spoke networks.
“Our family of E-Jets is ideally suited to ensuring that smaller communities maintain vital links to the world,” Embraer Commercial Aviation President and CEO Arjan Meijer wrote in the report’s foreword, arguing that mixed fleets will become increasingly important as passenger demand becomes more geographically dispersed.
Globally, Embraer projects demand for 8,500 new aircraft with up to 150 seats over the next 20 years, representing a market worth US$650 billion. More than half of those deliveries are expected to replace ageing aircraft, while the remainder will support market growth.
Africa is forecast to account for 370 deliveries, or around 4% of global demand in the segment, highlighting both the continent’s growth potential and the relatively small size of its current fleet.
A central theme of the report is that future growth will be driven less by larger aircraft and more by right-sized fleets capable of serving thinner routes with higher frequencies. Embraer argues that airlines operating mixed fleets are better positioned to open new markets, improve scheduling flexibility and increase connectivity while lowering emissions.
The manufacturer also links aviation growth to broader economic shifts. Rather than viewing global fragmentation as a threat, the report argues that the emergence of regional economic blocs, expanding manufacturing clusters and more localized tourism flows will increase demand for intra-regional air services connecting secondary cities and new business centres.
To support its case, Embraer highlights examples from Europe and Latin America where major industrial investments—including battery manufacturing in Sweden and automotive production in Hungary and Mexico—generated significant increases in regional air travel demand. The company argues these developments demonstrate how aviation increasingly follows regional economic activity rather than concentrating solely on traditional global hubs.
For Africa, the findings reinforce Embraer’s long-standing argument that improving intra-African connectivity will depend not only on liberalized air transport policies but also on deploying aircraft that better match the continent’s fragmented demand profile.
The outlook comes as Embraer intensifies its campaign in Africa, where it has identified dozens of underserved city pairs and is positioning its E-Jet family as a solution for expanding regional connectivity across emerging markets.
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