The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has outlined a mixed outlook for African aviation, combining strong traffic growth with continued structural constraints, during its presentation at the Focus Africa conference held in Addis Ababa.
Speaking at the event, IATA Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East, Kamil Alawadhi, said the continent is set to outperform global averages in passenger growth, with demand expected to rise by around 6 percent in 2026 compared to the global forecast of 4.9 percent.
Africa is also emerging as the fastest-growing region for air cargo. IATA data shows cargo demand by African airlines increasing by approximately 21 percent year-on-year, significantly above the global average of 11.2 percent.
Despite this momentum, the industry continues to face deep-rooted structural challenges that are limiting profitability and long-term sustainability.
IATA projects that African airlines will collectively generate just $200 million in net profit in 2026, underscoring the weak financial position of the sector relative to other regions. On a per-passenger basis, profitability remains among the lowest globally.
The association highlighted the high cost of doing business as a key constraint. African airlines operate in what IATA describes as the most expensive cost environment globally, with unit costs estimated to be nearly double the industry average. Fuel costs, older aircraft fleets, high taxation, and market fragmentation were cited as major contributing factors.
Infrastructure gaps also remain a significant concern. IATA noted that many airports across Africa require expansion and modernization, while airline charges are often misaligned with service levels. The lack of consultation between airports and airlines on major capital investments was also flagged as a recurring issue.
Connectivity challenges continue to weigh on the sector. Limited intra-African connectivity, combined with affordability constraints and restrictive visa regimes, is holding back demand and limiting the growth of regional travel.
Financial constraints were further highlighted by the issue of blocked airline funds. As of March 2026, approximately $774 million in airline revenues remain trapped in African markets, accounting for 80 percent of global blocked funds.
At the same time, IATA emphasized the significant economic role of aviation across the continent. The sector currently supports around 8.1 million jobs and contributes approximately $75 billion to Africa’s GDP, with tourism alone accounting for $42 billion.
Looking ahead, the association expects Africa’s passenger traffic to nearly double over the next two decades, approaching 400 million annual travelers by 2044, with East Africa projected to lead growth.
However, IATA cautioned that growth alone will not be sufficient.
The association called for stronger government support, urging policymakers to treat aviation as a long-term strategic asset rather than a short-term source of revenue. Priorities outlined include improving infrastructure, reducing the cost of doing business, enhancing connectivity, and strengthening regulatory and financial frameworks.
As African aviation continues to expand, IATA’s message was clear: the opportunity is significant, but unlocking it will require coordinated action across governments, airlines, and industry stakeholders.
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