Africa is rapidly emerging as the world’s most compelling aviation growth story. Passenger demand continues to accelerate, traffic is expected to double within the next two decades and the Continent remains one of the most under-served aviation markets globally. Yet industry experts argue that demand is no longer the primary challenge.
Tristan Brouard, Associate Director at ACC Aviation, who spoke at a recent industry conference in Gaborone, Botswana, outlines a market facing a paradox: strong growth fundamentals on one hand and increasing financial pressure on the other.
“Africa does not have a demand problem. It has a bankability problem,” he says. “The opportunity is clear, but airlines must be able to demonstrate that their growth plans are financially sustainable, operationally credible and capable of meeting the requirements of lenders, investors and lessors.”
This discussion comes at a time when airlines worldwide face unprecedented pressure in the aircraft supply market. Significant order backlogs with delivery delays are forcing many airlines to rely increasingly on leasing to secure fleet growth. At the same time, narrowbody and regional aircraft lease rates have risen, while higher global interest rates have increased funding costs across the aviation sector.
Lessors are passing much of those higher financing costs directly to operators, creating additional pressure on airline margins. For African carriers, those challenges are often amplified by higher operating costs and elevated perceptions of regional investment risk.
Despite these headwinds, Africa continues to outperform much of the global aviation market. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Africa was the only region globally to report positive passenger traffic growth of 2.8% in April 2026, while global traffic declined by 3.4%, largely due to disruptions affecting demand in the Middle East.
The long-term outlook is even more compelling. Boeing forecasts African passenger traffic will grow at approximately 6.4% annually through to 2043, making it the fastest-growing aviation region in the world. As a result, the Continent’s commercial aircraft fleet is expected to more than double over the same period.
Yet despite being home to nearly one-fifth of the world’s population, Africa accounts for only around 2% of global passenger traffic. The imbalance highlights the scale of untapped demand still available across the Continent. Yet, while passenger numbers continue to rise, profitability remains one of the most significant barriers to growth. African airlines continue to face some of the highest operating costs globally.
Industry data shows that jet fuel prices can be 20% to 30% higher than in many other regions due to supply chain inefficiencies, import dependencies and limited refining capacity. Taxes, fees, and charges frequently account for between 30% and 35% of the total ticket price, roughly double the proportion seen in many European markets.
The result is an industry operating on exceptionally thin margins. IATA forecasts African carriers will generate an average net profit of approximately US$1.30 per passenger in 2026, compared with a global industry average of US$7.90 per passenger. These economics often create the perception that Africa suffers from a shortage of capital.
However, Brouard challenges that assumption, “Global capital exists. The challenge is not a shortage of funding. The challenge is becoming investable.”
Historically, discussions around African aviation financing have focused on what airlines lack. A growing number of industry stakeholders are now focusing on what airlines need to become more attractive to investors, lenders and lessors, and ACC Aviation perceive that this shift is reflected in several major initiatives now underway across the Continent.
In 2026, the African Development Bank launched its Integrated Aviation Transformation Program (IATP), a Continent-wide initiative designed to improve access to aviation financing, strengthen connectivity, and mobilise private-sector investment into the aviation ecosystem. This signals a broader recognition that Africa’s aviation challenge is increasingly one of bankability rather than market demand.
At the same time, aviation stakeholders continue to advocate for wider implementation of the Cape Town Convention, which provides internationally recognised protection for aircraft financiers and lessors. Countries that fully implement the convention typically benefit from stronger investor confidence, improved aircraft financing conditions, and lower risk premiums.
Industry organisations such as AFRAA have also intensified efforts to strengthen engagement between airlines, lessors, OEMs, commercial lenders, and development finance institutions to improve the overall investment readiness of African carriers.
Collectively, these efforts seek to address one of the sector’s most persistent obstacles: the African risk premium.
Many lessors continue to apply additional risk premiums when placing aircraft with African operators. In some cases, airlines face significantly higher financing and leasing costs than peers in Europe, North America, or Asia. Lessors must evaluate concerns around asset recovery, regulatory consistency, foreign exchange availability, and the repatriation of lease payments. As a result, credibility has become one of the industry’s most valuable assets.
“Capital follows credibility,” Brouard explains. “Airlines that demonstrate strong governance, transparent ownership structures and disciplined financial management place themselves in a stronger position to access financing on more competitive terms.” He also identifies emerging funding structures, including equity partnerships, alternative financing mechanisms, and strategic investor participation, as potential pathways for African carriers seeking to expand.
Increasingly, these factors influence financing outcomes as much as traditional balance sheet metrics. Aircraft availability remains constrained, capital remains selective, and investor scrutiny continues to increase. Those airlines that prepare well before the opportunity arrives will be the ones positioned to secure aircraft, attract financing, and execute their growth strategies.
Delivering expertise across the aviation lifecycle ACC Aviation provides expertise, market intelligence, and operational support. Their consulting team based in Dubai observes that Africa’s aviation sector stands at a pivotal moment, and the conversation is also changing. Brouard concludes, “Successful fleet growth increasingly depends on helping airlines become investment-ready before they enter the market for aircraft.”
For years, the focus centred on how to stimulate demand and expand connectivity. Today, the more pressing question is how to build investable airlines. As the Continent’s aviation industry matures, the defining competitive advantage may not be access to demand. It could be credibility.
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