A new report by Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer has revealed that Africa’s intra-continental connectivity gap is widening rather than shrinking, despite strong passenger demand growth and a wave of new route launches across the continent.
Released during the 2026 AviaDev conference in Gaborone, Botswana, Embraer’s latest “Connecting Africa” report identified 55 intra-African origin-and-destination city pairs that still lack direct scheduled air service, up from 45 in the 2025 edition.
The findings reinforce one of African aviation’s long-running structural paradoxes: demand for travel across the continent continues to grow, but airline networks remain fragmented, under-served and often commercially misaligned with the realities of the market.
“The findings confirm that Africa’s connectivity gap is not narrowing,” the report states. “The challenge is not a lack of demand, but rather the need for the right aircraft and network strategies to sustainably unlock intra-African connectivity.”
Among the largest unserved markets identified in the report is Cape Town–Lagos, which recorded 70 passengers daily each way (PDEW), rising to an estimated 94 PDEW when stimulated by direct service. Other major underserved routes include Dakar–Libreville, Bamako–Libreville, Abuja–Nairobi and Durban–Mauritius.
The report highlights how many African passengers are still forced into long and inefficient one-stop journeys through regional hubs or even outside the continent due to the absence of direct flights between economically important city pairs.
At the same time, the market remains highly dynamic. Several previously unserved routes identified in the 2025 report have since been launched, including Abidjan–Douala, Dakar–Cotonou and Cape Town–Dar es Salaam. Additional services such as Accra–Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam–Lagos and Cape Town–Zanzibar have also entered the market.
However, Embraer noted that while new routes are being introduced, some are struggling to sustain operations, underscoring the fragile economics of African aviation and the importance of matching aircraft size and frequency to actual market demand.
“As highlighted in the 2025 report and further reinforced in 2026, a large share of unserved routes remains in the 10-70 PDEW range, confirming that many African markets continue to sit below narrowbody thresholds but are well suited to regional or small narrowbody aircraft,” the report said.
This is increasingly becoming one of the defining debates in African aviation: the challenge of “right-sizing” fleets for a fragmented and thin intra-African market.
Unlike Europe, the United States or parts of Asia where large-volume trunk routes dominate, many African city pairs generate relatively modest but still commercially viable passenger flows. The report suggests that regional jets and smaller narrowbody aircraft may be better suited to unlocking connectivity than larger mainline jets traditionally favored by many African carriers.
The study also revealed some of the continent’s fastest-growing unserved markets. Johannesburg–Mwanza recorded a 272% year-on-year increase in traffic demand, while Harare–Port Elizabeth grew 137%, Asmara–Nairobi 100% and Lagos–Zanzibar 92%.
Leisure travel, corporate demand, diplomatic traffic and visiting friends-and-relatives (VFR) traffic were identified as key drivers behind the growth in these underserved markets.
The report also highlighted the growing role of aircraft such as the Embraer E195-E2 in enabling thinner long-range African routes. Airlink CEO de Villiers Engelbrecht said the airline’s new E195-E2 fleet would allow the carrier to launch nonstop Cape Town–Zanzibar flights from October 2026.
“The introduction of our new flagship aircraft, the E195-E2, with its innovative business class and comfortable economy seats, enables Airlink to bring destinations such as Zanzibar within convenient non-stop reach of Cape Town,” Engelbrecht said.
Ultimately, the report reinforces the broader reality confronting African aviation: the continent’s connectivity problem is increasingly less about demand and more about economics, fleet strategy and structural fragmentation.
Despite years of liberalization discussions under SAATM and the Yamoussoukro Decision, Africa still remains one of the least connected regions globally by air. Embraer’s latest findings suggest that unless airlines adopt more flexible network models and right-sized aircraft strategies, the continent’s connectivity gap could continue widening even as passenger demand grows.
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