Airbus has released its 2025 Global Market Forecast (GMF) for cargo, projecting a significant expansion of the worldwide dedicated freighter fleet to 3,420 aircraft over the next 20 years, a 45 percent increase from current levels. The growth reflects the ongoing rise in global trade and economic development, as well as the continuing evolution of air cargo as a critical component of international logistics and commerce.
According to the forecast, the future fleet will consist of 815 existing freighters and 2,605 additional aircraft. Of these new additions, 1,530 will replace older models, while 1,075 will support growth in global cargo demand. The new freighters will include 1,120 small aircraft, 855 mid-size widebodies, and 630 large widebodies, highlighting the diverse needs of the air freight market.
Airbus anticipates that 1,670 of these freighters will be passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions, while 935 will be newly built aircraft.
Trade and GDP to Drive Demand
The report identifies world GDP and trade as the primary drivers of air cargo growth. With long-term trade expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7 percent, Airbus forecasts global air cargo to grow at 3.3 percent annually over the next two decades, effectively doubling cargo volumes by 2045.
Air cargo, the report emphasizes, has become indispensable not only for sustaining global economies but also for connecting remote regions, delivering essential goods, and supporting business development in emerging markets.
Shift Toward More Efficient Fleets
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the global freighter fleet saw rapid expansion, largely driven by passenger aircraft converted into freighters and minimal retirements of older models. Airbus now predicts a major fleet renewal phase, as many of these older freighters are phased out and replaced by new-generation, fuel-efficient models such as the A350F, A330 P2F, and A320/A321 P2F.
These aircraft are designed to meet the increasing environmental and efficiency demands of the global logistics industry while reducing fuel consumption and carbon emissions.
Changing Global Cargo Dynamics
Airbus also expects to see a diversification of trade lanes and air cargo flows as more Asia-Pacific countries emerge as key industrial centers. In addition, Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam are projected to grow into major consumer economies, driving a gradual shift in global air freight geography.
By region, the Asia-Pacific and North American markets will dominate future demand, together accounting for nearly two-thirds of the 2,605 new freighter deliveries. The Asia-Pacific region is projected to require about 850 aircraft, while North America will need approximately 920 over the forecast period.
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