As Africa’s population is set to double over the next twenty-five years, the aviation industry faces significant challenges in keeping pace with this growth. According to a recent analysis by OAG, some of the world’s largest cities of the future are located in Africa, and their burgeoning populations present both an opportunity and a challenge for the continent’s air transport sector.
The Urban Growth Surge
Africa is home to four major urban agglomerations with populations exceeding 10 million: Cairo, Lagos, Kinshasa, and Johannesburg. These cities are not only significant today but are also expected to grow substantially in the coming decades. Additionally, cities like Luanda in Angola and Dar Es Salaam in Tanzania are projected to join the ranks of Africa’s megacities as their populations double in size.
This rapid urbanization will place immense pressure on infrastructure, particularly in the aviation sector. However, the current state of air service in these cities reveals a significant gap between population growth and aviation capacity.
Disparities in Aviation Capacity
When examining the annual seat capacity relative to population size in 2023, only Cairo and Johannesburg appear to have air services that somewhat match the needs of their populations. For instance, Kinshasa’s air capacity is a mere 5% of its urban population, while Luanda’s capacity stands at just 17%. Lagos and Dar Es Salaam fare slightly better, with air service capacity reaching approximately one-third of their populations.
This stark contrast becomes even more evident when compared to global counterparts like Delhi, Jakarta, and Manila, where air service capacity often exceeds the size of the population. This suggests that for African cities to keep up with their population growth, substantial investments and expansions in aviation infrastructure are necessary.
North-South Divide in Aviation Growth
At the country level, the disparity in aviation capacity becomes even more pronounced. In some of Africa’s largest countries, the ratio of available seats to the population is alarmingly low. For instance, in Nigeria, the ratio is just 12%, while in Tanzania, it is 18%.
Conversely, North Africa, particularly Egypt and Morocco, shows a more favorable ratio. Egypt’s air service capacity equates to 50% of its population, and Morocco impressively reaches 90%. South Africa also demonstrates a higher capacity, but overall, the continent’s aviation growth remains concentrated in the very north and south, leaving much of the rest of Africa lagging behind.
The Connectivity Conundrum
One of the most significant challenges highlighted in the OAG report is the lack of intra-African air connectivity. Despite efforts to liberalize air transport across the continent, many intra-African routes remain underserved or are not served at all. This has led to the peculiar situation where travelers often find it easier to transit through a hub in the Middle East to reach another destination within Africa.
Cairo and Johannesburg, two of Africa’s major aviation hubs, offer relatively good connectivity to other parts of the continent. Johannesburg boasts 42 international routes within Africa, while Cairo has 35. However, even these hubs have notable gaps, particularly in connecting with Central and parts of North Africa.
The Path Forward
For Africa to realize its potential in aviation and to meet the demands of its rapidly growing urban populations, the industry must address these disparities. This requires not only expanding infrastructure but also liberalizing air transport, right-sizing aircraft, and offering competitive airfares.
As the continent’s cities continue to grow, the aviation sector must evolve to provide the necessary connectivity and support economic growth. With the right strategies, Africa’s aviation industry can rise to the challenge, but the time to act is now.
Comments are closed.