In a year defined by geopolitical friction, tariff uncertainty and rapid technological change, air cargo quietly became one of the most important stabilizing forces in the global economy.
A new report released by the International Air Transport Association shows that the sector played a decisive role in sustaining trade and economic growth in 2025, enabling companies to adapt to rising tariffs, shifting supply chains and the explosive demand for artificial intelligence hardware.
According to the report, air cargo enabled the frontloading of $157 billion in U.S. imports in the first quarter of 2025 alone, while also transporting more than two-thirds of all global AI-related goods during the year.
These movements helped sustain global trade growth of 2.4% in 2025, significantly higher than earlier projections from the World Trade Organization. Global GDP also expanded by 3.2%, despite mounting economic headwinds.
“Air cargo is a structural component of global economic resilience,” said Julia Seiermann, Head of Industry Analysis at IATA. “In 2025 it helped businesses absorb tariff shocks, enabled rapid trade restructuring and supported the expansion of artificial intelligence investment.”
Tariffs Trigger a Surge in Air Cargo
One of the most striking developments highlighted in the report was the surge in shipments ahead of expected tariff increases.
Average U.S. tariff rates climbed to around 17% in 2025, the highest levels seen since the 1930s. With trade policies shifting rapidly, many companies turned to air cargo to move goods quickly before new tariffs took effect.
The result was a dramatic surge in imports.
U.S. imports rose by $193 billion year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, a 26% increase. The overwhelming majority of that growth moved through air transport.
Imports carried by air rose 81% year-on-year, totaling $157 billion, which accounted for 82% of the entire increase in U.S. imports during the quarter.
In effect, air cargo became the logistical tool that allowed businesses to “buy time” against policy uncertainty.
Supply Chains Begin to Shift
Beyond the initial surge in shipments, companies also began restructuring their supply chains to reduce exposure to tariffs.
Importers in the United States started shifting sourcing away from countries facing the heaviest trade restrictions, while exporters redirected goods toward new markets, particularly in Europe.
Air cargo played a crucial role in this rapid geographical rebalancing.
Between April and December 2025, expanding trade routes benefited heavily from air transport. U.S. imports on expanding trade lanes grew by $213 billion, of which $174 billion—about 82%—was carried by air.
On the other hand, declining trade lanes saw far less impact on air cargo volumes. Of the $257 billion drop in U.S. imports from contracting markets, only **$77 billion—around 30%—had historically moved by air.
Europe saw a similar pattern. Air cargo carried 48% of gains on expanding trade lanes, but only 3% of losses on contracting ones.
The figures underline a key advantage of air freight: speed and flexibility, allowing supply chains to adapt almost immediately to political or economic shocks.
The Logistics Engine Behind the AI Boom
Another major driver of air cargo growth in 2025 was the global surge in investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
As companies raced to build data centers and expand computing capacity, the demand for high-value hardware—from servers and storage systems to advanced semiconductors—skyrocketed.
Air cargo became the primary transportation mode for these goods.
According to IATA’s report:
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More than two-thirds of the value of AI-related trade moved by air
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Shipments of AI-related goods grew 20% year-on-year
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AI equipment represented 53.5% of the value of air-transported goods, despite accounting for only 7% of total cargo volume
This imbalance reflects the extraordinary value density of technology cargo.
“The rapid increase in demand for AI-related goods in 2025 was met thanks to air cargo,” said Seiermann. “Without it, investment would have been constrained by logistics rather than driven by innovation.”
The Industry’s Next Priorities
Despite the strong performance of the sector, industry leaders say that structural improvements are still needed to ensure the resilience of global air cargo networks.
At the opening of the IATA World Cargo Symposium in Lima, IATA highlighted three strategic priorities for the industry:
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accelerating digitalization
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strengthening global standards
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enhancing safety and security
“Air cargo plays a critical role in connecting businesses to global markets and keeping supply chains moving,” said Brendan Sullivan, IATA’s Global Head of Cargo.
“With so many external events impacting supply chains, from tariffs to geopolitical shocks, it’s essential that the industry strengthens the areas it can control.”
Digital Transformation of Cargo Data
One of the most significant shifts underway is the move toward digital data sharing across cargo supply chains.
Cargo documentation has historically been fragmented across airlines, freight forwarders and regulators, often creating delays and compliance risks.
To address this, the industry is rolling out ONE Record, a global standard for end-to-end cargo data exchange.
From January 2026, ONE Record became the preferred method of sharing air cargo information.
Airlines representing more than 70% of global air waybill volumes are already preparing to adopt the system.
However, IATA says further progress will require:
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more airlines and freight forwarders to scale implementation
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governments to accept ONE Record data for regulatory filings
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technology providers to build interoperable digital platforms
Global Standards Under Pressure
Another area of concern is the growing complexity of international cargo regulations.
The number of variations to global dangerous goods regulations has now exceeded 1,200, creating operational challenges for airlines navigating multiple jurisdictions.
IATA is also urging regulators to ensure fair access to airport infrastructure for cargo operations.
At several major global hubs—including Bogotá, Dubai, Heathrow and Gatwick cargo airlines often receive only temporary or ad-hoc airport slots rather than permanent allocations.
This limits operational planning and reduces the reliability of cargo networks.
“Global standards and fair access to infrastructure are essential,” said Sullivan. “Transparent slot allocation will be critical to maintaining reliable cargo connectivity.”
The Security Challenge
Finally, IATA is calling for stronger global cooperation on cargo security.
Air freight networks remain vulnerable to threats such as undeclared dangerous goods or the misuse of lithium batteries.
The association is advocating wider adoption of electronic Cargo Consignment Security Declarations (e-CSD), which allow cargo security information to be shared digitally across supply chains.
“Safety and security are shared responsibilities across the entire cargo ecosystem,” Sullivan said.
“Modernizing global frameworks will be essential to ensuring that global trade continues to move safely and efficiently.”
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