I grew up a space geek. It was the gateway drug that led me to aviation. I remember reading about the great Russian cosmonauts – Gagarin, Tereshkova, Leonov and the astonishing pace of innovation that came from a world locked in competitive ambition. The Cold War was many things, but it was also a period when rivalry forced humanity to think bigger, move faster, and accept that progress thrives on credible alternatives. Today, I look at China’s commercial aviation ambitions through COMAC and find myself wishing the industry could recapture some of that spirit – not the politics, but the pressure. Because aviation, more than most industries, advances in leaps and bounds when dominance is challenged. And at a moment when Boeing is constrained by certification crises and Airbus is sold out for years, the uncomfortable truth is that the global aviation industry does not just want COMAC to succeed, it increasingly needs it to.
The problem is that today’s aviation industry is not structured for this kind of competitive pressure. For decades, the global commercial aircraft market has been effectively reduced to a duopoly, and that duopoly is now visibly strained. Boeing is still grappling with unresolved certification crises: the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 remain uncertified years after launch, while the long-delayed 777X continues to drift through an uncertain regulatory future. Airbus, meanwhile, is not failing so much as overwhelmed. Its narrowbody production is sold out well into the next decade, constrained by engines, suppliers, and a supply chain still recovering from pandemic shock. Airlines are growing, demand is back, and yet the aircraft simply are not arriving when needed.
In a healthier market, this is precisely where competition would intervene. Instead, airlines find themselves hostage to delivery slots, forced into expensive lease extensions, wet leases, and life-extensions of aging fleets that burn more fuel and undermine decarbonisation goals. The duopoly has not failed because its products are inferior, but because concentration has left the industry fragile.
Enter COMAC.
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