Africa’s aviation sector, despite its vast potential, remains underconnected. Representing 18% of the global population, the continent contributes less than 3% to global GDP and just 2% to global air traffic, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Embraer’s latest market report, Connecting Africa, offers a compelling blueprint for unlocking this potential by enhancing intra-regional connectivity. Drawing on a decade of traffic data and expert insights, the report highlights untapped routes, the power of hub strategies, and the critical role of right-sized aircraft in fostering sustainable growth. As African aviation stands at a crossroads, Embraer’s findings provide a roadmap for a more integrated and prosperous continent.
The Connectivity Challenge
Africa’s limited intra-regional air connectivity is a significant barrier to economic development. Shockingly, up to 22% of African travelers moving between two African cities must transit through non-African hubs, such as those in Europe or the Middle East. This inefficiency stems from a fragmented market, restrictive bilateral agreements, and insufficient direct routes. Despite the continent’s size—three times larger than Europe—and a population 2.5 times greater, its air transport activity lags 11 times behind Europe’s.
Embraer’s report underscores the economic stakes. Improved connectivity could boost trade, tourism, and cultural exchange, aligning with initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), launched in 2018, aims to liberalize skies, but progress remains uneven. Embraer’s analysis, however, shifts the focus from challenges to opportunities, celebrating Africa’s aviation achievements and identifying actionable steps forward.
Untapped Routes: A Catalyst for Growth
A core component of the report is its identification of high-potential intra-African routes currently lacking direct flights. Using Sabre Market Intelligence data from 2014–2024, Embraer analyzed traffic patterns to estimate the stimulation effect of new direct routes, measured by Passenger Daily Each Way (PDEW). The top two routes exemplify the untapped demand:
Abidjan (ABJ) – Douala (DLA), 1,519 km: Connecting West and Central Africa, this route serves over 10 million urban residents across Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon. Strong trade in cocoa, palm oil, and industrial goods drives business travel, while cultural ties and regional festivals fuel visiting friends and relatives (VFR) demand. Currently, passengers often transit through Lomé (LFW) or Abuja, but a direct flight could significantly stimulate traffic.
Lusaka (LUN) – Cape Town (CPT), 2,295 km: Linking Zambia and South Africa, this Southern African route taps into mining and agricultural trade. Cape Town’s status as a tourism magnet complements Lusaka’s growing urban population of over 3 million. Bilateral agreements between the two nations support feasibility, making this a promising market for direct service.
These routes, among others, highlight the potential for nonstop flights to enhance convenience, reduce travel times, and stimulate demand. Embraer’s data-driven approach provides airlines with concrete opportunities to expand networks profitably.
The Power of Hubs and Frequencies
Efficient hub operations are central to improving connectivity. The report details how African hubs, such as Addis Ababa, Nairobi, and Johannesburg, leverage their geographic positions to connect regions. For instance, East African hubs excel at linking Africa to Asia, while North African hubs connect to Europe and North America. A hub airline typically has at least 30% of its passengers connecting, with synchronized arrival and departure waves (banks) maximizing itineraries.
Embraer emphasizes the importance of multiple banks—ideally two or three daily—to reduce connection times and enhance competitiveness in Global Distribution Systems. A typical setup includes a morning bank for long-haul arrivals and regional departures, and an evening bank for regional arrivals and long-haul departures. Adding an afternoon bank further optimizes aircraft utilization and passenger convenience.
African hub carriers, like Ethiopian Airlines and Kenya Airways, have made significant strides in building robust networks. Ethiopian’s Bole International Airport, with over 45,000 weekly seats, exemplifies this success. Embraer’s report suggests that further investment in hub infrastructure and scheduling could amplify these gains, supporting both intra-African and intercontinental connectivity.
Right-Sized Aircraft: The Key to Profitability
A standout insight from the report is the critical role of aircraft selection in unlocking connectivity. While demand may be uncertain, operating costs are not. Embraer advocates for right-sized aircraft, particularly its E-Jets family, to de-risk operations and ensure profitability. The E175+ (76 seats), E190-E2 (96 seats), and E195-E2 (120 seats) are tailored for Africa’s fragmented, low-density markets.
Compared to larger narrowbodies, the E2 family offers lower trip costs, requiring fewer seats to be sold to break even. With a range of up to 6 hours, these jets provide flexibility for both short and medium-haul routes. Optimized wings, fly-by-wire technology, and improved aerodynamics deliver best-in-class economics, with similar per-seat costs to larger aircraft but significantly reduced risk.
Sean Mendis, a former airline executive, encapsulates this strategy: “You can fly a smaller plane twice, but you can’t only fly half of a larger one.” Behramjee Ghadially, Senior Manager of Fleet & Network Planning, adds that the E195-E2’s range and fuel efficiency make it ideal for both hub and point-to-point operations. By deploying right-sized aircraft, airlines can sustainably expand into underserved markets, fostering long-term growth.
Celebrating African Aviation’s Achievements
Embraer’s report takes a refreshingly positive tone, celebrating Africa’s aviation progress. African airlines have embraced cutting-edge technology, operating some of the youngest fleets globally, in contrast to older aircraft common in Europe and North America. Safety has improved significantly, with the continent making strides toward International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards. Major carriers have built world-class hubs, enhancing accessibility and positioning Africa as a global aviation player.
These achievements provide a strong foundation for future growth. The report projects an 8.1% annual increase in intra-African traffic through 2030, driven by economic growth and rising demand. By focusing on new routes, hub optimization, and efficient aircraft, Africa can close the connectivity gap and realize its aviation potential.
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