Africa’s aviation industry is entering a new era of opportunity and transformation, as detailed in Cirium’s latest report, Africa’s Skies in Focus. The report offers a data-rich snapshot of how African air travel is recovering post-pandemic, growing beyond expectations, and building the infrastructure, networks, and partnerships required to make the continent a serious player in global aviation.
Rapid Recovery and Skyward Surge
Passenger traffic in Africa reached 161 million in 2023, recovering from a pandemic low of just 49 million in 2020. In 2024, African carriers are projected to carry 98 million passengers, affirming the continent’s return to pre-pandemic traffic levels and a sustained appetite for air travel.
This surge is underpinned by economic growth, rising middle-class demographics, and government policies that prioritize aviation. Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Kenya are among the top performers fueling this rise.
Notably, Cairo International Airport (CAI) was Africa’s busiest airport by Origin & Destination passengers in 2024, followed by Johannesburg (JNB) and Cape Town (CPT). Airports in Addis Ababa, Lagos, Nairobi, and Casablanca are also recording impressive growth, both in domestic and international seat capacity.
Strategic Government Support
Policies like the African Union’s Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) and individual liberalization efforts have helped drive network expansion and investment in aviation infrastructure. Rwanda, Ethiopia, and South Africa are highlighted in the report as examples of countries that have used strategic policy decisions to attract international partnerships and promote regional integration.
Fleet Expansion and Future Demand
Africa’s commercial fleet is expected to more than double by 2043, requiring 1,170 new aircraft, including:
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830 single-aisle jets
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260 widebodies
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65 regional jets
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15 freighters
This aircraft demand aligns with Boeing’s market outlook and reflects strong growth across intra-Africa routes and international corridors to Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.
Additionally, the region will need to train 76,000 new aviation professionals (pilots, cabin crew, technicians) to support this growth, tripling the current active workforce.
The Challenge of On-Time Performance (OTP)
Despite rising capacity and demand, operational reliability remains a challenge. Cirium’s On-Time Performance Mid-Year Report ranks Safair as Africa’s top performer, with a stellar OTP of 94.47%. Ethiopian Airlines, Kenya Airways, and EgyptAir lag behind, with OTPs in the 50–65% range, suggesting room for significant operational improvements.
However, completion rates (flights operated as scheduled) remain high, demonstrating airlines’ resilience and commitment to maintaining service even in the face of infrastructure and weather-related challenges.
Europe-Africa: A Dynamic Aviation Corridor
The Africa-Europe air corridor is undergoing profound evolution, with partnerships, price competition, and shifting consumer preferences driving changes.
The report notes:
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African and European airlines are increasingly entering codeshares and alliances.
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LCCs (Low-Cost Carriers) now serve major Africa-Europe routes alongside legacy carriers.
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Passenger traffic on routes like Johannesburg–London, Casablanca–Paris, and Lagos–London is rising, driven by leisure and VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives) travel.
The impact? Increased competition, lower fares, and growing route networks — but also pressure on yields and the need for sustainable, long-term pricing strategies.
Safety and Sustainability: Work in Progress
African aviation’s safety record, while improving, remains an area of concern. In 2024:
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21 accidents occurred involving African commercial operators
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3 of these were fatal, resulting in 5 deaths
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Accident rate: 1 per 97 aircraft
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Fatal accident rate: 1 per 678 aircraft
This compares unfavorably with Europe (1 per 1,716) and North America (1 per 485). The report attributes the discrepancy largely to poor infrastructure, lack of navigational aids, and challenging operational conditions in remote and underserved areas.
Despite this, Group 1 operators — i.e., major scheduled airlines — had zero fatal accidents in 2024, highlighting the relative safety of scheduled air travel versus smaller, charter operations.
Looking Ahead: A Continental Opportunity
The Cirium report is optimistic about the future of African aviation, provided challenges around infrastructure, skills, and safety are addressed. Key takeaways include:
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Massive opportunity in fleet expansion, training, and regional air travel
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Intra-African connectivity is the next frontier: regional airlines and secondary airports will be critical
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Digital transformation and passenger-centric services will determine future competitiveness
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Strategic partnerships — such as Etihad-Ethiopian and Emirates-Airlink — are critical to unlocking global network synergies
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