As the aviation industry begins to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines are once again in the market for new airplanes. The landscape has changed significantly, with shifts in the business and leisure fare mix, remote work becoming more prevalent, and a strong focus on achieving net-zero carbon emissions. In response to these changing dynamics, Embraer’s Market Outlook 2023 for Commercial Aircraft provides valuable insights into the future of air travel and the demand for new, more efficient aircraft in the up-to-150 seat jet and turboprop category.
Embraer’s Market Outlook predicts a substantial surge in demand for up-to-150 seat aircraft over the next two decades. A staggering 11,000 new planes in this category will be required to meet this demand, and regional variations will play a significant role in shaping the industry’s trajectory.
Asia Pacific/China: Transitioning from Point-to-Point to Connecting Flights (3,180 Aircraft)
With a vast populace, the Asia Pacific/China region presents a unique aviation landscape. Despite its large population, domestic air service connectivity remains limited when compared to regions like the United States. Embraer’s forecast for the Asia Pacific/China region indicates a requirement of 3,180 aircraft (2,270 jets and 910 turboprops) in the up-to-150 seat category over the next two decades. Embraer’s report suggests that introducing more up-to-150 seat aircraft could enable carriers to transition from point-to-point flying to a more extensive network of connecting flights. Such a strategic shift would improve services to secondary and tertiary cities, catering efficiently to markets with reduced demand.
North America: Addressing the Pilot Shortage and Improving Efficiency (3,100 Aircraft)
Embraer’s projections suggest a demand for 3,100 aircraft (2,690 jets and 410 turboprops) in the up-to-150 seat category for North American carriers. A pilot shortage poses a significant challenge to North American airlines, resulting in the grounding of 50-seat jets and the use of larger narrowbodies on regional routes. To address this issue and enhance operational efficiency, the region is expected to increasingly favor up-to-150 seat aircraft. These planes offer lower trip costs and comparable seat-mile costs to larger narrowbodies, making them an attractive option as the pilot workforce expands.
Europe/CIS: Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Compliance with Emission Standards (2,840 Aircraft)
Embraer’s forecast indicates a demand for 2,840 aircraft (2,390 jets and 450 turboprops) in the up-to-150 seat category for Europe and its CIS partners. Narrowbodies currently dominate airline fleets in the region. As sustainability gains importance in the aviation sector, carriers are transitioning to Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). However, the medium-term cost of SAF may lead to higher ticket prices and some carriers scaling down operations. Up-to-150 seat aircraft, on the other hand, are already compliant with future noise and emissions standards, making them an ideal choice in the region’s pursuit of a low-carbon future.
Latin America: Embracing Smaller Aircraft for Enhanced Connectivity (960 Aircraft)
Embraer’s forecast indicates a demand for 960 aircraft (780 jets and 180 turboprops) in the up-to-150 seat category for Latin America. Latin America’s aviation market has traditionally relied on large narrowbodies operating point-to-point routes. However, since 2020, there has been a shift towards smaller aircraft, suggesting an emerging trend. With 78% of flights being point-to-point, adopting up-to-150 seat aircraft allows airlines to expand their networks through increased connecting flights, providing greater access to underserved markets.
Middle East: Focusing on Intra-Regional Connectivity (390 Aircraft)
Embraer’s projections suggest a demand for 390 aircraft (340 jets and 50 turboprops) in the up-to-150 seat category for the Middle East. The Middle East has witnessed a decline in long-haul flights, prompting airlines to concentrate on expanding intra-regional air service. A significant proportion of domestic and regional flights in 2022 carried fewer than 150 passengers, indicating a clear demand for up-to-150 seat aircraft to cater to these markets. Enhanced intra-regional connectivity will be pivotal in addressing the changing travel patterns in the region.
Africa: Tapping into Underutilized Potential (530 Aircraft)
Embraer’s forecast indicates a demand for 530 aircraft (320 jets and 210 turboprops) in the up-to-150 seat category for Africa. Africa’s aviation sector remains underutilized, with relatively sparse daily flights and low load factors due to overcapacity and limited propensity for air travel. To unlock the continent’s potential, airlines can turn to up-to-150 seat aircraft, which are well-suited to open new nonstop markets, increase frequencies, and serve the region’s unique requirements. However, regulatory constraints pose a significant barrier to fully realizing this potential.
Embraer’s Market Outlook 2023 presents a compelling narrative of the future of global aviation, showcasing a growing preference for smaller, more efficient up-to-150 seat aircraft. With demand projected to soar over the next two decades, airlines worldwide must adapt to regional variations and capitalize on the advantages offered by these aircraft. As the industry embraces sustainable practices and addresses emerging challenges, the adoption of up-to-150 seat aircraft will play a pivotal role in shaping the aviation landscape of the future.
