Airbus presented its Forecast for Africa’s aviation industry at the recently concluded AFRAA stakeholders convention in Nairobi.
On the sidelines on the event Geert Lemaire, market intelligence and consulting director at Airbus, speaking to Jon Howell on the Aviadev insight podcast affirmed that intra-African connectivity is set to be the driver for passenger air traffic on the continent.
Airbus sees the year 2023 as a likely time for 2019 numbers to resurface on the continent in its early recovery scenario with the end of 2025 or early 2026 marked for a late recovery scenario.
Growth of the sector’s air traffic beyond the recovery is expected to be at a rate of 4% per annum according to Airbus, creating a new world of opportunity for the continent and this growth will have to be supported by the delivery of 1100 new aircraft by 2040.
Of these aircraft 30% will be replacements for aging older generation types while 70% will serve to facilitate future growth.
In terms of aircraft size, Airbus expects to demand for 860 small aircraft (100 to 210 seats), 150 medium size aircraft(210 to 300 seats), 90 large aircraft(above 300 seats) by 2040.
Clearly, the key driver for Africa’s aviation growth will be Intra regional connectivity and for this to thrive, it will be enabled by continental initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area, Free movement of goods and people, Visa Openness and the implementation of the Single African Air Transport Market.
Expected GDP growth coupled with an urban population density that is estimated to expand by 3.1% annually will further drive Africa forward according Geert Lemaire
You can listen to the full podcast interview below:
To download the presentation, please click here
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